OCR Pathway is now clear

Gerald Mullaney

21 August 2025

The view is the OCR will reach a low of 2.50% by Nov 2025

From Nov 2025 there will be no further OCR announcements until Feb 2026 with another announcement in March 2025

This gives the RBank time from Nov 2025 to see if the lower OCR is stimulating the economy in particular Auckland economy.

The pathway to the OCR low is clear now.

Two out of six committee members of the RBank nz voted on a 00.50 points cut but they were out voted 4 to 2 it does show that there is some panic in that there was an urge to get the OCR rate down as fast as possible.

The thing is the economy does need rebalancing which it is in the process of doing and it may be stopped by Dec due to the up and coming election in 2026

Therefore the view is a cut in OCT and Nov 00.25 points each month totaling 00.50 points.

The OCR by Dec 2025 will be 2.50% meaning we could see 3.99 - 4.59% interest rate by Dec 2025

The Bank does not meet again until Feb so there are not meetings until Feb 2026 and again in March 2026.

The view is by Feb March 2026 the RBank NZ will be able to assess if the economy has picked up.

If the economy in particular Auckland has not picked up the view and it's only a possibility that the OCR will be cut Feb March by 00.25 and each meeting Feb and March, totaling 00.50 Points and down to a low OCR of 2.00%

There is a possibility that the OCR will reach a low in march 2026 at 2.00% meaning  3.99% interest rate more or less.

The government will want to boom the economy in 2026 therefore there is a real possibility that an OCR of 2.00% will be achieved by March 2026.

Therefore focus on the rates daily through to Nov 2026 and if one see a great long term rate one grabs it as after the election going into 2027 interest rates go back up due to inflation caused through rated being decreased in 2026.

Cheap Debt is on the way but keep focus daily to be on point when a low long term rate appears my view is to fix low for 4/5 years as i think a storm will be upon us by early 2027