OCR bottoms out.

Gerald Mullaney

19 Feb 2026

The outlook has become clear that the OCR maybe on hold until Dec 2026 it will only start to increase if inflation is out side the bound of 1 to 3%. Therefore the view is that the OCR has reached a bottom being Dec 2025, unless something causes it to go lower like deflation or some form of crises. Therefore the only way that mortgage interest rates will drop from here will depend on swap rates and currently swap rates as at 18 Feb 2026 are falling, this could cause retail rates to fall back. There is still a chance in 2026 if swap rates do continue to trend down that a good rate maybe able to be secured sometime in 2026. At this point in time the view is a three rate at 4.49% would be the deal, if a four or five year rate appears at 4.49% to 4.99% this maybe a low is it would go. The view is we are not going to see rates in the three's unless there is a huge crises. Fixing long term below 5% provides security and certainity.

Yawn or jolt

Gerald Mullaney

26 Nov 2026

The question is will the RSBNZ give the economy a huge jolt to liven up the economy today 26 Nov 2025

The view is a 50 basis point cut is possible today if the RBNZ is serious about jolting the economy into action and setting up BOOM AHOY 2026.

A 25 basis points cut, the view is the market will just give it a yawn and the causal effect will have the economy sliding sideways therefore causing another cut in Feb 2026 some three months away.

The idea is get the job done today, thus resetting the economy. for 2026 and beyond.

The view is its not a great idea to leave the economy drowning for another three months.

Therefore the view is cut 50 basis points today or suffer more downside to the economy.

Get serious get the job done today.