where are mortgage rates going?

How can we know

Gerald Mullaney

12 June 2026

As at 12 June 2026 inflation is on the rise depending on how challenging the economy get there is every indication that inflation could hit 5 -6% If that is so then the 5 year rate goes 8.00%

Currently the banks, except for ANZ, are priced from .75 - 1.00% below market this means a rate increase is imminent.

The banks have been pricing mortgage rates of sway rates not the OCR as at 12 July 2026 the 5 year swap is approximately 3.83% therefore the forecast 5 year rate is 6.83% as priced at 12 June 2026

Current 5 year rate 12 June 2026 5.69%

Market rate 6.89% 1.20%

Therefore the rate trend is heading back to its long term average of 7.00% plus.

The idea is to fix as long as you can to be able to secure peace of mind and security.

For now the forecast is UP.

Mortages floating, fixing, what term?

What to do the confusion continues

Why is it critical to know what to do and become educated on matters of finance and the OCR and matters to do with the RBNZ

There are many advisors, opinions many people make money out of it by charging fees for being wrong or setting one off on the wrong path.

Lets have a look at the many factors that one needs to consider and that lead to the right decision for you, as everyone is different

But not as different as one would think to cope with matters such as the cost of debt this the cost of money and how to contain the cost of debt as debt incurred has a

Lets explore what people are looking for and trying to achieve

I have had financial people say everyone is different therefore what doe that mean.

Lets explore the non financial needs

What are the requirements

The requirement Key Points

1. Stability no up and downs, no uncertainity

2. Security ensure you are not over mortgaged

3. Protection fixed long term as a low rate 5.50%

4. Containment of costs. Secure the lowest rate on the best term that suits the cash flow

   The financial need

The needs Key Points

1. The Debt To buy a family home

2. Secure best rate The interest rate as low as possible

3. Secure longest term At the best rate.

Mental Health approach

1. Stability Fixing as long as you can

2. Security Fix long and low

3. Less worry Fix five years

4. Fix forget Fix five years

5. Worry free Fix five years

   There we have it there are three section to consider it not just about fixing a rate.

   Considering mental health in terms of pay a bit more for a longer term, what cost do you put on mental health, therefore consider the wider ramifications of financial and mental health. Keep an eye on any thing that causes uncertainity that causes chaos one wants to secure calmness and peacefulness.

   The End