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where are mortgage rates going?

How can we know

Gerald Mullaney

12 June 2026


As at 12 June 2026 inflation is on the rise depending on how challenging the economy get there is every indication that inflation could hit 5 -6% If that is so then the 5 year rate goes 8.00%


Currently the banks, except for ANZ, are priced from .75 - 1.00% below market this means a rate increase is imminent.


The banks have been pricing mortgage rates of sway rates not the OCR as at 12 July 2026 the 5 year swap is approximately 3.83% therefore the forecast 5 year rate is 6.83% as priced at 12 June 2026


Current 5 year rate 12 June 2026 5.69%

Market rate 6.89% 1.20%


Therefore the rate trend is heading back to its long term average of 7.00% plus.


The idea is to fix as long as you can to be able to secure peace of mind and security.


For now the forecast is UP.










 
 
 

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