OCR Prepare for Termination

Gerald Mullaney

28 May 2025

Get ready for the termination date Oct or Nov 2025

The OCR was reduced today, 28 May 2025 as predicted to 3.25%

The projectory is becoming clear, by each announcement.

The RSBNZ mentioned in January 2025 that a neural range of 2.50% to 3.50% was an appropriate range.

This gives clues as to where the termination month will occur.

There are four more announcement this year coming soon July 2025 Aug, Oct 2025 and then a final for the year 20 November 2025

The view, as at today is that, the termination rate will be 8 October 2025 and at worse 20 November 2025

The view is that, the 8 October 2025 announcement is the one to watch for, as this gives a good lead into prime pump leading into the Nov 2026 Election.

Therefore by the beginning of summer 1 December 2025 the summer and blue skies will be upon us and happy days may begin, bearing in mind that the lower rates take about 12 months to take full effect on the economy.

That takes us to Oct 2026 just two months prior to the election approximately.

Therefore as boom ahoy comes into play from November 2025 look to banks competing through the next twelve months to November 2026 during that period there matbe some great rates leading up to the election in November 2025.

Again, be viligant from October 2025 on wards and the final termination month and look to secure a great long term rate from October 2025 throught to November 2026 as the next OCR by November 2026 could well be up.