Staying alert to Opportunites

Snooze you lose

Gerald Mullaney

26 July 2025

There is no future in set and forget say alert daily and watch trends no one is coming to save you, get educated on matters of OCR, SWAP RATES and keep an eye out on trends and announcements.

Thinkr has stated in previous blogs were rates are headed therefore its thinkr view to be alert to a great rate when it appears which may be by March 2026.

The lows in the one to five year rates will hit a low for only a very short time from one week to six months.

If you see a very hot rate that suits your financial goals then you grab it.

The one point thinkr is very concerned about is inflation therefore thinkr view is inflation in the short term trends down and once interest rates hit the low inflation will begin to rise again, therefore thinkr view is to lock at the low on a term that is suitable to ones financial goals.

Keep in mind that the last peak in inflation was 2021 four year ago which caused the floating rate to hit 7.50%.

The point thinkr is making is that if inflation does spike in 2026 it could take another four years to get inflation back under control.

Therefore think favor's a fix for four to five years at the low to avoid the coming high interest rates that could spike from 2027.

Fixing long term at the low is a kind of safe harbour away from financial destruction.

Thinkr favor's security, stability and assurity. causing the ability to hold on to assets and thus cash flow and avoid any incoming storms.

No resting, one cash rest when one dies.

How do i know what my future interest rate could look like

Gerald Mullaney

26 July 2026

The mortgage rates are controlled by the OCR and SWAP rates.

Bank margins over OCR or SWAP rates is 2%.

When the banks are not competing the margin is 2% or higher.

Therefore as at july 2025 the banks are not competing to lend.

The mortgage rates are falling very slowly due to the concerns about inflation.

However thinkr long term view and out look is the OCR reaches a low or maybe lower than 2.50% to 2.25%.

This mean in the first quarter the below One Two year rate could fall to a low of

2.25% + 2.00% = 4.25%

2.50% + 2.00% = 4.50%

There is the very possibility we could see 3.99% for a very short time say three to six months.

The previous low in 2021 was 2.50% retail mortgage rates thinkr does not forecast this low ever again being reached again and only going that low if there is an economic emergency which is always possible.

Therefore it's thinkr view and forecast that mortgage interest rates are re setting higher and about 4% as a low, this is double the rate of 2021

The end result is the cost of interest is going to double from 2021.

Adjust your cash flow to see the effect the new re set of interest rates.