OCR low forcast

When will the low arrive in 2025?

Gerald Mullaney

16 May 2025

It was the previous view that the OCR would reach a low by May 2025.

This will not be the case, the OCR low is now reviewed to 8 Oct 2025, possibly Nov 20 2025.

The reason for this revised forcast is that the RSBNZ has made the decesion to go very slow by only reducing to OCR by 00.25 basis points.

Treading very carefully so as not to cause inflation and inflation in property prices.

The reason for this is as follows

1. The RSBNZ does not want an other property boom.

2. The Govt and the RSBNZ want to contain inflation in the range of 2 to 3% with 2.50% being the hot spot.

The economy and inflation in 2020/2021 caused huge inflation on property prices and this could take 10 years to bring prices and incomes into balance.

Be on the alert as great rates may appear by Nov 2025 and beyond depending on the economy and inflation.

OCR & interest rates

Gerald Mullaney

15 May 2025

Pay day due for the observant investor

The OCR is due for another review on the 28 May 2025 and it is of the view it will be reduced by 00.25 basis points, down to 3.25%

The RBNZ indicated in Jan 2025 that the OCR range is between 2.50% and 3.50% range.

That would indicate that RBANK NZ is treading very slowing to guage what OCR will trigger econonic growth but not causing inflation.

Currently the OCR is in the top of the range, that range being 2.50% to 3.50% on the 28 May 2025 the OCR is forecast to be 3.25% one has to wait and see if the OCR does reach a low 2.50% OCR or lower maybe reached. That could mean some rates going to as low as 3.00 to 4.50% we are already in may 2025 seeing one to two years rates at 4.99% which is 5.00% in reality.

Banks are advertising 4.99% for one to two years as at 15 May 2025 this may not be a great rate in three to four months time when they could be in the rage 3.50 to 3.99% thereabouts.

Holding out will bring about a great payday keep alert.