The long drop OCR Forcast

Gerald Mullaney

16 Feb 2025

It has been a long wait, since the previous OCR rate cut late in Nov 2024. The economy is in a chock hold. by the RBNZ for good reasons, in that the RSBNZ is getting the economy back on track after going way off track from 2021 to 2024. The forecast for the economy coming back on to track is still 2026 the mild improvements from mid to late 2025.

The OCR cut for 20 Feb 2025 is a cut of 50 basis point bring the OCR to Feb 2025 to 3.75%

The previous commentary on the OCR does forecast futher cuts, this again will depend on the economy and the big one is inflation.

The long wait could well be a nice gift on the 20 Feb 2025.

Boom Ahoy

12 February 2025

Gerald Mullaney

To make sense of where the economy is at, i will just summarise events therefore having a timeline to see how the economy is tracking through the recession years to the next BOOM AHOY.

The boom years ended at the end of 2021, the economy entered a planned recession in 2022 and is still in recession going into Feb 2025

Possible coming to and end mid to late 2025.

By the time the recession has completed its cycle the recession will have been near three and a half years to a maximum of 4 years long by the time the planned recession completes its planned cycle

Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 Autumn

Jan 2023 to Dec 2024 Winter

Jan 2025 to Dec 2025 Spring

Jan 2026 and Beyond Summer

The boom to from 2010 to to 2021 which was 11 years was so huge and so long it needs a good recession to get the economy back on track.

The recession has been quite severe as many forced sales have occured and many business have gon bankrupt.

The idea of a recession is the not only to get the economy back on tract but to clean up the economy and remove excess debt and zoombie companies and non performing companies.

The recession is readying the economy for the Boom Ahoy 2026

The question to be asked of ourselves is, is one prepared for the BOOM AHOY 2026 and beyond? Because by cycle it is going to happen.