OCR track locked in.

2026 will be the year of a low in the OCR

Gerald Mullaney

12 August 2025

I am calling the OCR to end the year 2025 @ 2.50% meaning the one year rate will be around 4.59% by Dec 2025

The view is that Auckland and Wellington have not crashed but collapsed therefore the view is that very soon the RBNZ will panic.

Certainly its minders will be canning their ass as Auckland in particular collapses any further, having said that, policies are being put together to save Auckland, therefore Auckland is being pre prepared for a boom into 2026.

The situation will be made to look very bad thru to Dec 2025 so the rich property investors have enough time to buy all the bargains.

Due to the point above the view is by March 2026 there is the possibility of the OCR being reduced to 2.00% meaning 3.99% one two year rate by march 2026

The retail rates could go lower by up to 00.25 - 00.50% if the banks start to compete.

The view is still the same that a low is coming the timing and the low will occur in 2026

Real focus is required from now on so that when the low occurs one is positioned to snap up a great long term rate thus securing one position against higher inflation into 2027