OCR Update

Gerald Mullaney

20 March 2025

The economy is still in creative destruction mode, including the destruction of the Governer of The Reserve Bank NZ job.

This all indicates, that the pressure is on. It is the view, as of today that, there will be a further 50 basis point cut on the 9 April 2025.

Most are indicating 0.25 basis point cut but that is totally boring and we need to get to the terminal rate sooner rather than later.

This will bring the OCR rate to 3.25% there is still a long way to go to hit the terminal rate of 2.00 to 3.00% the view is, by mid 2025 we could possibly see the low being reached.

Some points of view are, that the terminal rate may arrive at 2.50%

However with the economy still in the destruction phase the view is that the bank may over correct down to 2.00% meaning a low of 3.99% retail mortgage rate is possible or lower depending on the markets, economy and war.

There is 19 days to go until the 9 April 2025 decesion and all decesion and all views are live, nothing can be ruled in or out.

The thing we can be certain of, is that a low is coming.

Stay viligent and alert as ones economic future will depend on it.

There is no such thing as fix and forget.

Snooze you lose.

The Silver Bullet

Gerald Mullaney

19 March 2025

There is a view, that the economy is going to return to the way it was, that is very low interest rates, escalating property prices, roaring stock market and a gambling and speculation economy.

The view on interest rates is that they will go much lower but that will be to stave off a major crash into 2025. The low is coming earlier than expected due to the current governer being pressured to vacate the office of governer.

Current mortgage holders or debitors secured by real assets like real estate or prorperty will be in for a big reduction in interest costs and a huge bonus due to reduced debt servicing costs.

Bad news is great news from property owners who have debt.

The new buyers coming into the market, cannot afford the deposits required and even if they can, they cant service the debt, therefore prices have to come down further or incomes have to rise substantially to correct the huge imbalances.

The view is that the good old times of speculating, gambling in the economy may not happen going into the near future.

The view of making money by doing nothing or very little is over in the near term.

Having stated all the above where are things heading for the future, the future could look like the following.

1. Huge growth and spending in the medical area.

2. Huge growth and spending in the military complex.

3. Huge growth and spending on infrasture.

Were will the future well paid job be remembering that speculation and gambling is now reducted.

The areas of the best income and security could be found in the following areas.

1. All medical field Jobs.

2. Army, Air Force, Navy

3. Engineers, Designers of Infrasture and builders of infrasture.

4. Housing.

5. Education

6. I.T AI New technoligies, robots

7. Jobs in Emergencies.

8. Police and Policing.

9. Security Services.

10. Property Maintainance.

11. Elderly support.

The silver bullet can be yours but not in the way of the past.

Boom AHOY 2026 is still right on schedule.