How do i know what my future interest rate could look like

Gerald Mullaney

26 July 2026

The mortgage rates are controlled by the OCR and SWAP rates.

Bank margins over OCR or SWAP rates is 2%.

When the banks are not competing the margin is 2% or higher.

Therefore as at july 2025 the banks are not competing to lend.

The mortgage rates are falling very slowly due to the concerns about inflation.

However thinkr long term view and out look is the OCR reaches a low or maybe lower than 2.50% to 2.25%.

This mean in the first quarter the below One Two year rate could fall to a low of

2.25% + 2.00% = 4.25%

2.50% + 2.00% = 4.50%

There is the very possibility we could see 3.99% for a very short time say three to six months.

The previous low in 2021 was 2.50% retail mortgage rates thinkr does not forecast this low ever again being reached again and only going that low if there is an economic emergency which is always possible.

Therefore it's thinkr view and forecast that mortgage interest rates are re setting higher and about 4% as a low, this is double the rate of 2021

The end result is the cost of interest is going to double from 2021.

Adjust your cash flow to see the effect the new re set of interest rates.