The Pressure is Turned UP

Down, Down and Down

Gerald Mullaney

10 March 2025

The pressure is on all around, are you left or right? there is no middle ground the voting market has positioned it self to far right or far left is the choice.

The polls are out Luxon National DOWN, ECONOMY DOWN, OCR DOWN.

The Prime Minister, has for some reason, decided to sit in the middle of the road, that position gets one run over.

The Left is clear, they have moved furtherleft and have not changed their position just that the left has moved futher to the left.

National does have a choice National needs to get Luxton to move to the right if he won't move further to the right, then he is going to get run over.

National needs to move fast and if there is going to be an over throw of the prime minister one would suspect it will happen in the next eight weeks, sooner or later.

National need to move fast to prepare for the election 2026 and BOOM AHOY.

Economy Down, there wont be a noticable positive change in the economy until summer or going into 2026 the economy baring a black swan event is progressing to more positive economy going into 2026.

The OCR is coming down and with the change at the RBNZ it would be expected that the OCR will move down on a faster track reaching a low possibly by 9 April 2025.

Look out for BOOM AHOY 2026

OCR Terminal Rate

Gerald Mullaney

9 March 2025

The govt is moving fast to get the OCR down to the terminal rate, the low in this cycle.

The reseach concludes that the 9 April 2025 will be the date the OCR will reach a low of 2.50%

Depending on bank margins, inflation, there is the possibility that we could see a low retail interest rate sometime in April 2025 in a range 3.99% to 4.99%

There is the possiblity the retail rates could go lower depending on how much further the economy deteriorates into 2025 - 2026

Rates would most likely stay low for 12 to 18 months then the rates may move higher due to inflation.

How ever due to volatile markets the low may not stay for long possible 3 to 6 Months.

It does look like rates may settle at 1.00% higher than the low of 2.99% in 2021

The whole management of debt requires the debitor to be vigillant as to when a great low rate and term could be secured.

With the huge volitility fixing for, as low as you can, for as long as you can to secure stability and security.