OCR Terminal Rate

Gerald Mullaney

9 March 2025

The govt is moving fast to get the OCR down to the terminal rate, the low in this cycle.

The reseach concludes that the 9 April 2025 will be the date the OCR will reach a low of 2.50%

Depending on bank margins, inflation, there is the possibility that we could see a low retail interest rate sometime in April 2025 in a range 3.99% to 4.99%

There is the possiblity the retail rates could go lower depending on how much further the economy deteriorates into 2025 - 2026

Rates would most likely stay low for 12 to 18 months then the rates may move higher due to inflation.

How ever due to volatile markets the low may not stay for long possible 3 to 6 Months.

It does look like rates may settle at 1.00% higher than the low of 2.99% in 2021

The whole management of debt requires the debitor to be vigillant as to when a great low rate and term could be secured.

With the huge volitility fixing for, as low as you can, for as long as you can to secure stability and security.

Push, Orr, Row

Gerald Mullaney

8 March 2025

Now that Orr has been pushed on, everyone is using the orr to row like crazy to stop the huge bleeding of cash flow due to high debt and high interest rates.

There, is not far, to row now, due to losing an Orr. There is the possibility of the OCR being reduced by another 50 basis, there is always a possibility of a .75 basis points cut in April 2025 depnding how just how bad the economy is current the economy has flat lined to trending down.

If the RBNZ does cut .75 basis points that brings the OCR down to 3.00 basis points.

With the current crash and over supply of property especially in Auckland the race is on to stave off a full blown property crash.

As at 8 Feb 2025 i see the OCR could possibly be reduced to 2.00 to 2.50 basis points by May 2025 or sooner, it could possbile go lower depending on how the economy perform and over seas developments and warfare play out.

There is the very possiblity if the economy worsens we could see by mid year at 2.50% but more certainly 3.00 to 3.99% retail interest rates.

The summary is be positioned to pounce on your bank as soon as you see a very nice low rate it should appear by mid 2025 so be viligant in the management of ones debt.

I favour 2.99% for 5 years but that could be asking too much but be on the outlook as it will save on 1000,00 in interest if one gets it right.